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Howard Leaman                                                     Jun 19/19


Canola has been mainly on the defensive in overnight action. Palm oil,
European rapeseed, soybeans and soy meal are also lower this morning, but
soy oil is showing some independent strength. The Canadian dollar is up
about five one-hundreds of a cent against the U.S. dollar. Trading is apt
to be choppy today given the uncertainty surrounding the weather outlook.

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Traders are becoming increasingly    1) Forecasts are calling for 
nervous about planting delaying wet     rainfall in dry areas of western 
weather in key U.S. crop areas.         Canada. Not everyone agrees, but 
Forecasts are calling for more rain,    timely rains this summer could 
and talk is increasing that a           still produce a decent crop.      
significant number of acres of soy      2) China's boycott of Canadian  
will not be planted.                    canola continues to overhang the
2) Canola's short term technical bias   market as stocks of Canadian     
is to the upside. Any weakness is apt   canola are expected to remain huge.
to be seen as a buying opportunity.     3) World soy stocks are expected to
3) Canola could see spillover buying    be huge even if weather cuts U.S.
from soy oil.                           output.

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