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Howard Leaman                                                     Dec 07/18


Canola has been mainly stronger in overnight action. Palm oil and soy oil
are on the defensive this morning, but European rapeseed, soybeans and soy
meal are mainly firmer. The Canadian dollar is down about seven tenths of a
cent against the U.S. dollar. Canadian and U.S. unemployment figures will
be released today which could move the Canadian dollar and subsequently
canola. The Canadian dollar has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar this
week, and it could see some bounce today.

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Stats Can's estimate of Canadian     1) Optimism surrounding the 
canola production was on the low side   U.S./China trade truce is fading as
of expectations at 20.343 million       political tension increases. 
tonnes.                                 2) The South American soy crop is
2) Though the South American soy crop   off to a good start this year and 
is enjoying generally favourable        output is expected to be 
conditions, there are enough areas of   significantly above last year's 
concern to keep some weather premium    levels.
in the market.                          3) Canola looks vulnerable to     
3) The technical bias in canola is      profit taking after its rally over
turning to the upside.                  the last two weeks.

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